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Fitch expects South Africa's debt to rise again in 2028/29

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Fitch Ratings expects debt to stabilise at about 78% of GDP over the next two fiscal years, then rise to 79% in 2028/29. The National Treasury and Moody's Ratings both project a decline.

Fitch said weak economic growth is the main reason for its view. It forecasts growth of 1.1% this year and 1.4% in 2027. Fitch said its projections are slightly more pessimistic than those of the National Treasury.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said debt peaked at 78.4% of GDP in 2025/26. He said it will fall to 76.6% by 2029/30. Moody's Ratings also said debt peaked and faces a "clear, albeit gradual" decline.

Fitch said the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement supports the prospect of stabilising debt. It said fiscal consolidation stays on track, with higher revenue offsetting more spending. It also said reforms in energy and logistics could help support investment and growth.

Moody's called the budget update credit-positive. It said the country has limited fiscal space to absorb shocks.

Key facts

Who
Fitch (International credit ratings agency); Enoch Godongwana (Finance Minister); Fitch Ratings (credit rating agency); Moody's Ratings (credit rating agency)
What
Credit rating agency Fitch said the MTBPS supports the prospect of stabilising government debt, but flagged weak growth and higher oil prices as risks; it expects debt around 78% of GDP over the next two financial years, rising slightly to 79% in 2028/2029.
When
27 October 2026
Where
South Africa
Status
Reported

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