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Investors rush to insure against an AI boom unravelling

Published

Weekly trading in credit default swaps linked to bonds of firms such as Oracle, Alphabet and Nvidia averaged more than $9bn in September, up from less than $2bn in July, according to Morgan Stanley Research.

A credit default swap (CDS) pays out if a company fails to repay its debt. Investors buy them to protect their portfolios. The bonds linked to the swaps belong to Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nvidia.

The cost of buying CDS on many AI-linked companies hit record highs this month. Investors buy the protection because they fear the AI boom could unravel. Their unease over borrowing to fund AI infrastructure appears to be growing, as that spending runs to trillions of dollars.

Key facts

Who
Ramsay Hodgson; Euan Healy; Morgan Stanley Research (source of trading volume data); Robert Dafforn (chief investment officer at Polus Capital)
What
More than $9bn of credit default swaps linked to bonds of Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nvidia were traded on average each week in September, up from less than $2bn in July, according to Morgan Stanley Research. The cost of buying CDS on many AI-linked companies hit record highs this month.
When
20 October 2026
Status
Reported

Elections Hot

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Voting in the 2026 Local Government Elections is under way at 23,696 stations, and the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) reported a smooth start on 4 November. Stations opened at 7am and close at 9pm, and by 10am preliminary figures showed 3,523,691 voters had cast ballots.

There were problems: unused ballot papers were stolen from Mnyameni Secondary School near Durban, police opened a case, and the IEC relieved the station staff of duty. Some voters in Tshwane said they were turned away for wearing party shirts, but the IEC denied this and said only mayoral candidates' entourages were barred.

ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe told members not to query the results or discredit the IEC, while the IEC said false online claims show routine procedures as fraud.

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US mid-terms Heating up

What you need to know

Democrats won back both the US House and Senate in the midterm elections held on 3 November, according to media projections. Exit polls showed voters were angry about high prices and the direction of the country, and rebuked President Donald Trump.

Before the vote, US forces struck targets on Qeshm Island in Iran, while Republicans struggled to defend the war against Iran on the campaign trail. Iranian officials said US voters rejected the war, and Tehran stayed on high alert for possible new US strikes.

Markets reacted, with the dollar hitting a one-month low and the rand firming to around R16.55, as analysts pointed to fears of gridlock in Washington.

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AI Cooling

What you need to know

Nvidia has told its cloud computing clients to sell at least 51% of their services to non-Chinese companies, according to five people with knowledge of the matter. Anthropic said it has committed to spend close to $900bn on AI infrastructure, and that its computing costs are rising faster than its revenues.

Elsewhere, reports from unnamed sources say OpenAI's latest funding round is falling short of expectations, and a judge let the NAACP pollution case against xAI proceed. In South Africa, the VAST AI investment scheme went offline on 30 October after withdrawals marked approved did not arrive, according to a news investigation.

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