KwaZulu-Natal HIV progress has stalled since 2019, study finds
Researchers at the Africa Health Research Institute and Stellenbosch University found that new HIV infections in a rural KwaZulu-Natal population fell by 55% between 2010 and 2024-25. The study, in The Lancet HIV, found no evidence of a continued decline between 2019 and 2025.
Professor Frank Tanser is the senior author, and Dr Elphas Okango is the lead author. Incidence fell from 3.32 to 1.49 new infections per 100 person-years. From 2019 to 2025, detectable viraemia rose by 9.6 percentage points, and incidence stayed flat or rose among adults aged 35 to 54. The study is peer-reviewed, but the cohort is rural and not nationally representative.