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Nedbank expects South Africa's deficit to keep narrowing

Published

Nedbank expects the budget deficit to fall from 4.5% of GDP in 2025/26 to 3.9% this year, even as growth weakens. The bank made the forecast in a preview of the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS).

Nedbank said the National Treasury is likely to lower its economic growth forecast for this year slightly. The bank expects the deficit to fall to 3% of GDP by 2029/30.

Nedbank said public debt has peaked at just over 78% of GDP. It expects debt to ease to around 75 percent by 2030.

The bank said the first half of the year was weak, with manufacturing and mining under pressure. It said the Middle East conflict and disruptions to global supply chains have made the economic climate harder since the February budget.

Nedbank also expects the statement to give details on the adoption of a fiscal anchor.

Key facts

Who
Nedbank (bank that issued the preview forecast); National Treasury (government department expected to present the MTBPS); Godongwana (finance minister, named in a related article headline)
What
In a preview of the MTBPS, Nedbank said the National Treasury is likely to slightly lower its economic growth forecast for this year and forecast the budget deficit and public debt trajectory. The bank expects the deficit to narrow from 4.5% of GDP in 2025/26 to 3.9% this year and 3% by 2029/30.
When
21 October 2026
Where
South Africa
Status
Reported

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