World Bank expects Johannesburg to fall to 8th biggest African city
A new World Bank study projects that sub-Saharan Africa will have five megacities by 2050. It says Luanda is likely to overtake Lagos as the biggest city, while Johannesburg drops from 5th place and Cape Town leaves the largest ranks.
The study says Johannesburg will grow to 8.9 million people by 2050. It puts the city's population at 7.1 million in 2025. Statistics South Africa reported 4.8 million in its 2022 census, and the study uses a broader urban definition than municipal boundaries.
The study puts Cape Town's population at about 4.5 million. It says the city will no longer rank among the largest in the region. It says Luanda's population may top 20 million.
Other cities will grow fast. The study projects that Bamako will grow by 80% to 7.6 million people over the next 25 years. It projects 64% growth for Mogadishu over the same period.
The study says the urban population of sub-Saharan Africa will rise by 320 million to 823 million by 2050. The figure rises to 1.7 billion when peri-urban areas and towns are included. The World Bank and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre assessed current city sizes together.
Key facts
- Who
- World Bank (Washington-based lender that produced the new urbanisation study); European Commission's Joint Research Centre (co-assessed the current city sizes with the World Bank); Statistics South Africa (reported Johannesburg's 2022 census population of 4.8 million)
- What
- A new World Bank study, using a broader urban definition than municipal boundaries, predicts rapid population growth in sub-Saharan African cities. Johannesburg is projected to fall from 5th to 8th biggest city in sub-Saharan Africa and Cape Town will no longer be ranked among the largest.
- When
- 2 November 2026
- Where
- Lagos, Nigeria, Luanda
- Status
- Reported