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October 2026 is the warmest October on record, Copernicus says

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The EU climate service Copernicus said the average global surface air temperature in October was 1.75°C higher than in pre-industrial times. It said 2026 is all but certain to be the second calendar year after 2024 to pass 1.5°C.

Copernicus said October was the third straight month above the 1.5°C threshold. The average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions was 20.95°C, the highest on record for October.

The Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific reached 3.21°C, an all-time high. Copernicus said El Niño conditions are intensifying there.

Copernicus said 2026 will most likely be the second-warmest year on record. It put the chance that 2026 ties or beats 2024 as the warmest year at about 20%.

Scientists say warming beyond 1.5°C sharply raises the risk of severe heatwaves, droughts, floods and other climate impacts. The 1.5°C figure is the Paris Agreement target.

Key facts

Who
Copernicus (EU climate service that published the October data)
What
Copernicus said October 2026 was the warmest October on record and that 2026 is all but certain to be the second calendar year after 2024 to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It also reported record October sea surface temperatures and a record Niño 3.4 anomaly as El Niño intensifies.
When
6 November 2026
Where
Tropical Pacific
Status
Reported

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