Treasury says GDP revision improves South Africa's debt outlook
National Treasury said Stats SA's rebasing and benchmarking of GDP data raised nominal GDP by 5.1% (R393 billion). The larger economy lowers key fiscal ratios, and Treasury now puts the debt-to-GDP peak at 74.6% in 2025/26.
Treasury said in a statement on Thursday that debt will drop under 70% of GDP by 2032/33. That is a year sooner than the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) forecast. The MTBPS had put the 2025/26 debt peak at 78.4%.
The primary surplus is now 1.6% of GDP in 2026/27, against 1.7% in the MTBPS. For 2029/30 it is 2.8%, against 2.9%. The main budget deficit for 2026/27 is 3.5% of GDP, against 3.7%.
Treasury said the consolidated budget deficit improves by 0.2 percentage points of GDP on average. The main budget primary surplus is revised down by 0.1 percentage points on average over the medium term. Treasury said the changes do not reflect any shift in revenue, spending or debt projections.
Stats SA announced the GDP revision on 29 October 2026. Treasury said Stats SA's five-yearly benchmarking has often raised the estimated size of the economy but has seldom changed growth rates in a meaningful way. Director-General Duncan Pieterse said government keeps meeting its fiscal targets and the country is seeing lower borrowing costs.
Key facts
- Who
- National Treasury (government department that updated the fiscal ratios and issued the statement); Statistics South Africa (agency that announced the GDP revision on 29 October 2026); Duncan Pieterse (National Treasury Director-General); Johann Els (PSG Financial Services chief economist)
- What
- National Treasury said a Stats SA GDP rebasing and benchmarking revision raised nominal GDP by 5.1% (R393 billion), which mechanically lowers key fiscal ratios such as debt-to-GDP, with the revised ratios not reflecting changes to revenue, spending or debt projections.
- When
- 5 November 2026
- Where
- South Africa
- Status
- Reported